January 5th

Motion to move the Knicks out of New York

Cavs (17-13) are one GB Chicago for 4th seed and 5.5 back of NY for 3rd seed with 52 g left. I figure 52 wins should be good for 3rd seed. I don't see the NY Pants winning 76% of their remaining games. Miami wight be good for 80% but not BKN, so maybe 2nd seed is an outside possibility.

Regression to the mean, do you speak it?

Chicago Starters
PG: Derrick Rose (93)
SG: Jimmy Butler (69)
SF: Luol Deng (84)
PF: Carlos Boozer (85)
C: Joakim Noah (83)

Average = 82.8

Bench x 3
Taj Gibson (78)
7. Kirk Hinrich (79)
8. Mike Dunleavy (75)

Average = 77.3


Hi Josh;

Interesting comparison.  So maybe by the numbers, BKN & MIA should win 80% of their games and NY wins more than CHI & CLE who fight it out for the 4th seed. 

However, in real life the Lakers didn't win the title last year despite their accumulation of talent - and I don`t believe BKN will this year in the real world.  I don`t know much about the way the simulation engine works, but I would imagine that higher ratings indicate higher probabilities, not absolute outcomes.

I give y'all credit for great general management but we need to sim/play the games before we award the title.